Research Report on the "14th Five Year Plan" and Medium and Long-Tterm Coal Reduction Strategy and Road Map of Zhejiang Province

2022-02-16 管理员 Read 53

As the main energy source in Zhejiang Province, coal should follow the development direction of green and low-carbon, achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, reduce and replace in an orderly manner, and promote the transformation and upgrading of coal consumption. Zhejiang province continued to promote the reduction and substitution of coal consumption during the 13th Five Year Plan period, and coal consumption has entered the stage of centralized utilization. At present, the economic development of Zhejiang Province has maintained medium and high-speed growth, the number of short board projects in key pillar industries has increased, the cultivation of strategic emerging industries has increased, and the living standards of residents have further improved. It is expected that the total demand for energy consumption will show a rigid growth trend during the 14th Five Year Plan period. This report focuses on the study of coal reduction strategy in Zhejiang Province and puts forward a feasible coal reduction roadmap to further reduce coal consumption on the premise of ensuring high-quality economic development. The research group comprehensively combed the coal reduction policies at home and abroad, comprehensively analyzed the current situation of coal reduction in Zhejiang Province, and investigated and analyzed the coal reduction costs of different industries in Zhejiang Province. According to the analysis of the current situation of coal reduction in Zhejiang Province, the macro environment of coal reduction is analyzed by PEST method. Through SWOT method, the advantages and disadvantages, opportunities and challenges of coal reduction in Zhejiang Province are put forward, and then the overall idea of coal reduction in Zhejiang Province is put forward. Based on the analysis of the current situation of coal consumption and coal reduction strategy in Zhejiang Province, comprehensively considering the actual situation of energy transformation, industrial development and technological progress, and fully considering the requirements of carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060, the leap-2060 model of coal consumption in the 14th five year plan and medium and long-term in Zhejiang Province is established to calculate the coal consumption and coal reduction cost in different scenarios. According to the research of the research group, the main conclusions are as follows: 21 Coal reduction in Zhejiang Province is facing a new situation. From the external situation, the national strategy of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization will accelerate the substitution process of coal consumption reduction, and the construction of "important window" will further highlight the importance of energy security. From the perspective of internal feasibility, the clean utilization technology of coal in the province has been relatively advanced, but the innovation of industrial energy efficiency technology still has great potential. The scenery doubling project will open a new period of great development of renewable energy. 2. The idea of coal reduction has gradually changed from "control first" to "reduction first". During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we should adhere to "control first" and strive to promote the efficient and clean utilization of coal. In the medium and long term, we should change to "reduction" first, greatly reduce coal consumption, and gradually change coal to supplementary energy. 3. Specific technical path of coal reduction in Zhejiang Province by 2030, focus on reducing the development of high carbon industries such as steel, cement and chemical industry, and promote the improvement of coal consumption efficiency and reduce coal consumption by means of process improvement and technological progress; After 2030, on the one hand, continue to reduce or transfer the production capacity of steel and cement, and strengthen the control of "high carbon and low efficiency" industries according to the idea of "transforming one batch and eliminating one batch". On the other hand, vigorously promote coal substitution and replace traditional coal power with clean energy sources such as nuclear power, solar energy and wind energy. In order to promote the work of coal reduction in Zhejiang Province, the research group puts forward the following policy suggestions: 1 Further improve the total coal consumption control mechanism. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the energy security situation in Zhejiang Province was severe, and economic development was still an important goal. It is suggested that on the premise of continuing to "focus on control", the total coal consumption control mechanism should be upgraded to "total coal consumption elastic control mechanism". There is no clear total target, but the total amount still needs to be continuously controlled, Explore and further optimize the assessment mechanism of total coal consumption, and shift from regional assessment to industry and regional assessment. 32. Take the power generation and heating industry as the top priority of coal reduction. 80% of the coal in Zhejiang Province is used for power generation and heating. It is suggested that for the provincial unified dispatching power plant, since the transformation of ultra-low emission has been completed, the focus should be on improving the standard coal consumption of power supply, and further strengthen the benchmarking to the international advanced and domestic first-class level; For local thermal power plants, on the basis of continuing to improve the standard coal consumption of power supply, further reasonably control the scale of coal consumption and give full play to the benefits of central heating to the greatest extent. 3. Absolute reduction of raw material coal in industrial industries. The consumption of raw material coal in Zhejiang Province is mainly concentrated in four industries: cement, steel, petrochemical and chemical industry. These four industries are typical "high carbon and low efficiency" industries. Continuing to expand the scale is not conducive to the promotion of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the whole province. It is suggested to control the development scale of the industry, supplemented by the non coal adjustment of energy structure, and promote the absolute reduction of raw material coal in the industrial industry of the whole province. 4. Increase efforts to promote the substitution of natural gas and renewable energy. On the premise of considering the overall cost reduction of coal, it is suggested to take the substitution of natural gas as the main path and the substitution of renewable energy as an important supplement, continue to promote the coal to gas project, actively expand the utilization of natural gas, fully implement the scenery multiplication project, and accelerate the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body. The next step will focus on promoting the in-depth implementation and effective implementation of policies and measures, carrying out pilot demonstration, and strengthening the publicity and promotion of achievements. 4ExecutiveAbstractAchievingcarbondioxidepeakingandcarbonneutralitygoalisamajorstrategicdecisionmadebythePartyCentralCommitteeaftercarefulconsideration. ItisrelatedtothesustainabledevelopmentoftheChinesenationandthebuildingofacommunitywithasharedfutureformankind. AsthemainenergysourceinZhejiangProvince,coalmustfollowthedevelopmentdirectionofgreenandlow-carbon,benchmarkingtoachievecarbondioxidepeakingandcarbonneutralgoals,orderlyreduceandreplace,andpromotethetransformationandupgradingofcoalconsumption. Duringthe"13thFive-YearPlan"period,ZhejiangProvincecontinuedtopromotethereductionandsubstitutionofcoalconsumptionwhichhasenteredastageofcentralizedutilization. Atpresent,economicdevelopmentofZhejiangProvinceismaintainingmedium-to-highspeedgrowth,projectstosupplementtheshortcomingsofpillarindustriesisincreasing,thecultivationofstrategicemergingindustrieshasintensified,andthelivingstandardsofresidentshavefurtherimproved. Itisexpectedthatthetotalenergyconsumptiondemandduringthe"14thFive-YearPlan"periodwillshowarigidgrowthtrend. ThisreportfocusesonthestudyofcoalreductionstrategyinZhejiangProvinceandproposesafeasiblecoalreductionroadmaptofurtherreducecoalconsumptionwhileensuring5high-qualityeconomicdevelopment. Theresearchgroupcomprehensivelysortedoutcoalreductionpoliciesathomeandabroad,investigatedandanalyzedthecurrentsituationofcoalreductioninZhejiangProvinceandthecostofcoalreductionindifferentindustries. Basedontheanalysisofthecurrentsituationofcoalreduction,theoverallideaofcoalreductioninZhejiangisproposedthroughtheapplicationofthePESTmethodtoanalyzethemacro-environmentofcoalreductionandtheSWOTmethodtoproposetheadvantagesanddisadvantages,opportunitiesandchallengesofcoalreduction. OnthebasisofthecurrentstateofcoalconsumptionandcoalreductionstrategiesanalysisinZhejiangProvince,aswellascomprehensivelyconsideringtheactualsituationofenergytransition,industrialdevelopment,technologicalprogress,therequirementsofcarbondioxidepeakingin2030andcarbonneutralityin2060, theLEAP-2060modelofcoalconsumptionin"14thFive-YearPlan"andmediumandlongterminZhejiangProvinceisestablishedandusedtomeasureandcalculatecoalconsumptionandcoalreductioncostsindifferentscenarios. Accordingtotheresearchoftheresearchgroup,themainconclusionsareasfollows:61. CoalreductionworkofZhejiangisfacinganewsituationFromtheperspectiveoftheexternalsituation,carbondioxidepeakingandcarbonneutralitynationalstrategywillacceleratetheprocessofcoalconsumptionreductionandsubstitution,andtheconstructionof"importantwindows"willfurtherhighlighttheimportanceofenergysecurity. Fromtheperspectiveofinternalfeasibility,thecleancoalutilizationinZhejianghasalreadyutilizedmoreadvancedtechnologies,buttheinnovationofindustrialenergyefficiencytechnologiesstillhasgreatpotential,andthe“wind-solarmultiplier”projectwillstartanewperiodofgreatdevelopmentofrenewableenergy. 2.Theworkofcoalreductiontransferfrom"control-oriented"to"reduction-oriented"Duringthe"14thFive-YearPlan"period,theworkofcoalreductionshouldadheretothe"control-oriented",andstrivetopromotetheefficientandcleanutilizationofcoal. Inthemediumandlongterm,itshouldtransitionto"reduction-oriented",drasticallyreducecoalconsumption,andthecoalgraduallyconverttosupplementaryenergy. 3.ThetechnologypathofcoalreductioninZhejiangProvinceBefore2030,coalconsumptionshouldbereducedbysuppressingthedevelopmentofhigh-carbonindustriessuchas7steel,cement,andchemicalindustries,whileupgradingprocessesandtechnologiestoi